Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
