It was two months ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.
Per the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
